{"id":12262,"date":"2023-05-23T11:25:13","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T08:25:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bestessayhomework.com\/tr\/?p=12262"},"modified":"2023-05-23T11:25:13","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T08:25:13","slug":"dogrudan-alintilar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bestessayhomework.com\/tr\/dogrudan-alintilar\/","title":{"rendered":"Do\u011frudan Al\u0131nt\u0131lar"},"content":{"rendered":"

Do\u011frudan Al\u0131nt\u0131lar<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Denklem, al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n benimseyenlere, do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n yenilik\u00e7ilere ve dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n taklit\u00e7ilere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fi sonsuz pazarda yeniliklerin yay\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Bass denkleminden ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fildir. Bass modeliyle ba\u011flant\u0131 ara s\u0131ra de\u011fildir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc her makale, fikir pazar\u0131na giri\u015fi al\u0131nt\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen yeni bir \u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Denklem, zaman gecikmesinin 1\/\u03b3 \u0303 oldu\u011fu ve qj \/\u03b3 \u0303’nin birinci dereceden otoregresif parametre oldu\u011fu, at\u0131f dinami\u011finin birinci dereceden otoregresif modelidir. T\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015f al\u0131nt\u0131lara e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verenin aksine, son al\u0131nt\u0131lara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcmler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u03b3 \u0303 verdi\u011finden, bilimsel yay\u0131nlar\u0131n at\u0131f dinamiklerinin daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Benzer modeller \u00f6nerildi ve Facebook kurulum kararlar\u0131n\u0131n dinamiklerinin de k\u00fcm\u00fclatif pop\u00fclerlikten ziyade son zamanlara y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nyarg\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Denklemler ayn\u0131 y\u0131l yay\u0131nlanan makalelerin at\u0131f dinamiklerini nitel olarak benzerdir ve yaln\u0131zca makalenin uygunlu\u011fu \u03b7j taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen \u00f6l\u00e7ekte farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterirken, farkl\u0131 disiplinlerdeki makaleler i\u00e7in at\u0131f dinamikleri R0 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fe g\u00f6re farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00fcm makalelerin at\u0131f y\u00f6r\u00fcngesi, yay\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 nedeniyle farkl\u0131 disiplinler aras\u0131nda biraz farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren B(t) fakt\u00f6r\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan belirlenir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bunu takip eden at\u0131f dinami\u011fini analiz etmek i\u00e7in A \u0303(t) ya\u015flanma fonksiyonuna A0e\u2212\u03b4t \u00fcss\u00fc ile kabaca yakla\u015f\u0131r\u0131z, orada yerine koyar\u0131z ve geliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Daha sonra g\u00f6sterece\u011fimiz gibi, \u00e7o\u011fu makale i\u00e7in \u03b3 \u0303 \u2212qj > 0 ve \u03b3 \u0303 \u2212qj >> \u03b4.<\/span>\u00a0Denklemler 3.30 ve 3.31, bir j makalesinin at\u0131f dinamiklerinin, yava\u015f olan e\u2212\u03b4t ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olan e\u2212(\u03b3\u0303 \u2212qj )t olmak \u00fczere iki \u00fcstelin etkile\u015fimi taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u223c 1\/(\u03b3 \u0303 \u2212 qj ) s\u00fcreli ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00f6nemden sonra, dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131lar do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 izler, \u00f6yle ki genel al\u0131nt\u0131 oran\u0131 do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131lar, do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n temett\u00fcleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr, sonrakilerin her biri \u223c qj dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131 getirir. Uzun zaman s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda, toplam al\u0131nt\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 \u03b3 \u0303\u2212qj\u2212\u03b4 doygunlu\u011fa yakla\u015f\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u03b3 \u0303 \u2212 qj < 0’\u0131n tersi durumda, kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kma davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edin. Bu durumda bir makalenin at\u0131f alma oran\u0131 zaman i\u00e7inde h\u0131zlanmakta ve uzun zaman s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda katlanarak artmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bireysel Makalelerin At\u0131f Dinamikleri<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00d6zet Geli\u015ftirilen at\u0131f dinamikleri modeli, eskime i\u015flevi, eskime i\u015flevi ve makalenin uygunlu\u011fu gibi ampirik i\u015flevleri ve parametreleri belirlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Ya\u015flanma fonksiyonunun evrensel oldu\u011funu, yani ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yay\u0131nlanan bir alandaki t\u00fcm makaleler i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 oldu\u011funu bulduk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, eskime i\u015flevi, \u00f6nceki al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu beklenmedik bulgu, bizi at\u0131f dinamiklerinin a\u011f y\u00f6n\u00fcne daha yak\u0131ndan odaklanmaya ve sadece at\u0131f a\u011f\u0131ndaki her makalenin en yak\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda bir sonraki en yak\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almaya sevk etti.<\/span><\/p>\n

G\u00fcncellenen model, bir makalenin at\u0131f dinamikleri ile kom\u015fular\u0131 (a\u011f s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131) aras\u0131ndaki korelasyonlar\u0131 hesaba katar.\u00a0<\/span>Geli\u015ftirilen at\u0131f dinami\u011fi modeli birka\u00e7 ampirik fonksiyon ve parametre i\u00e7ermektedir. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn amac\u0131 bunlar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mektir. Ayr\u0131ca modelimiz \u00e7e\u015fitli varsay\u0131mlar i\u00e7ermektedir. Bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n do\u011frulanmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geli\u015ftirilen model, j makalesinin at\u0131f dinami\u011finin uygunluk \u03b7j, eskime i\u015flevi A \u0303(t) ve eskime i\u015flevi T(t) taraf\u0131ndan belirlendi\u011fini belirtir.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131 nas\u0131l yap\u0131l\u0131r APA<\/span>
\nDo\u011frudan<\/a> al\u0131nt\u0131 Nas\u0131l yap\u0131l\u0131r<\/span>
\nDolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fi<\/span>
\nDo\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131 \u00f6rnekleri<\/span>
\nDolayl\u0131 ve do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131<\/span>
\nDo\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131 Nedir<\/span>
\nMakale i\u00e7indeki al\u0131nt\u0131dan al\u0131nt\u0131 yapma<\/span>
\nAPA al\u0131nt\u0131 yapma<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerimizi organize etmek i\u00e7in, A \u0303 (t ) ve T (t ) fonksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u0131l yay\u0131nlanan t\u00fcm makaleler i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve referans analizinden bulunanlara e\u015fit oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131ndan yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k. \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcmleri yapt\u0131ktan sonra, bu varsay\u0131m\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>\n

A \u0303(t), T (t) ve \u03b7j’yi belirlemenin basit yolu, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z makalelerin al\u0131nt\u0131 dinamiklerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek, do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131lar aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131m yapmak ve \u03b7j’yi bir uydurma parametresi ve A \u0303(t),T(t)’yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibi kullanarak dinamiklerini ayarlamakt\u0131r. uydurma fonksiyonlar\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. 25 y\u0131lda 100 al\u0131nt\u0131 toplayan bir Fizik makalesi i\u00e7in do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n dinamiklerini g\u00f6sterir. D\u00fczg\u00fcn bir al\u0131nt\u0131 gidi\u015fat\u0131na sahip bu kadar iyi al\u0131nt\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f bir makale i\u00e7in, uydurma prosed\u00fcr\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak, uzun s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde 10-50 al\u0131nt\u0131 toplayan s\u0131radan makaleler i\u00e7in, bu t\u00fcr makalelerin al\u0131nt\u0131 y\u00f6r\u00fcngeleri \u00e7ok g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcl\u00fc oldu\u011fundan, uydurma prosed\u00fcr\u00fc iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz.<\/span><\/p>\n

G\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc en aza indirmek i\u00e7in, benzer makale gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ortalama at\u0131f dinamiklerini dikkate ald\u0131k, yani ayn\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma alan\u0131na ait, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yay\u0131nlanan ve uzun s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ayn\u0131 say\u0131da Kj\u221e at\u0131f alan makaleler. . Burada j indeksi, tek bir ka\u011f\u0131t yerine bir grup ka\u011f\u0131t anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6rt\u00fck varsay\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z, her gruptaki makalelerin ayn\u0131 uygunlu\u011fa sahip oldu\u011fu ve al\u0131nt\u0131 y\u00f6r\u00fcngelerinin ayn\u0131 A \u0303(t) ve T (t ) i\u015flevleri taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netildi\u011fi idi. Bu nedenle, b\u00f6yle bir gruptaki makalelerin ortalama at\u0131f oran\u0131, yani belirli bir uygunluk de\u011ferine sahip bir makalenin olas\u0131l\u0131ksal at\u0131f oran\u0131na iyi bir vekildir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdir(t)’nin zamana ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir, k\u00fcm\u00fclatif bir ortalama j say\u0131s\u0131<\/span>\u00a025 y\u0131lda s\u0131ras\u0131yla 10, 20, 30 ve 100 al\u0131nt\u0131 toplayan d\u00f6rt Fizik makalesi grubu i\u00e7in do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131lar. Farkl\u0131 gruplar i\u00e7in K d i r (t ) y\u00f6r\u00fcngeleri niteliksel olarak benzerdir ve \u00f6l\u00e7eklendirmeden sonra hepsi tek bir e\u011fri \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6ker.<\/span><\/p>\n

A \u0303(t)’nin verildi\u011fi yerde Farkl\u0131 uygunlu\u011fa sahip makaleler i\u00e7in do\u011frudan al\u0131nt\u0131 y\u00f6r\u00fcngelerinin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, al\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7in ya\u015flanma fonksiyonunun A \u0303(t) uygunlu\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Buna g\u00f6re, bu fonksiyon referanslar i\u00e7in eskitme fonksiyonu ile ilgilidir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolayl\u0131 At\u0131flar<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Grafikler K i ndir (t ), g\u00f6sterilen makalelerin j grubu i\u00e7in k\u00fcm\u00fclatif dolayl\u0131 al\u0131nt\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131. Bu y\u00f6r\u00fcngeleri Kindir(t) = t kj(\u03c4)d\u03c4 ili\u015fkisini kullanarak yerle\u015ftirdik.<\/span><\/p>\n

m(t \u2212 \u03c4) 1984’te yay\u0131nlanan t\u00fcm Fizik makalelerinin ortalama al\u0131nt\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 ve Tj (t ) = T0j e\u2212\u03b3j (t \u2212\u03c4 ) referans \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m\u0131zda bulunan eskime fonksiyonudur. Uyum parametreleri \u03b3j ve T0j idi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uydurma prosed\u00fcr\u00fc, beklendi\u011fi gibi, t\u00fcm makale gruplar\u0131 i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 zaman sabitini \u03b3 = 1,2 yr-1 verdi ve referans \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m\u0131zda bulunana e\u015fitti. Ancak, T0j’nin her grup i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 olmas\u0131 bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu, T0j’nin at\u0131f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na, Kj\u221e ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu beklenmedik T0(K) ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, modelimizin eksik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Ola\u011fan \u015f\u00fcpheliler, makalenin at\u0131f dinamikleri ile at\u0131f a\u011f\u0131ndaki kom\u015fular\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki korelasyonlard\u0131r (a\u011f dilinde bunlara derece-derece korelasyonlar\u0131 veya s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma denir). Ger\u00e7ekten de, bir makalenin at\u0131f dinami\u011fini en yak\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n at\u0131f dinamikleriyle birle\u015ftirir.<\/span><\/p>\n

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